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India's Second Wave of Covid-19: How it Fell Apart

Updated: May 23, 2021



Since April of 2021, India has been experiencing an immense surge of Covid-19 cases, with over 300,000 new victims being recorded every day. The Indian healthcare system was clearly strained and brought to its breaking point, prompting countries such as France, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the United States to pledge emergency medical assistance to help combat the crisis.

The south-Asian country set a new global record on the 26th of April with 352,991 daily coronavirus patients, while ‘virus-related’ deaths increased by 2,812 in 24 hours, an all-time high. After the pandemic started in December 2019, the country has posted the highest daily data on Covid-19 for the fifth day in a row.

People are forming long lines outside hospitals in the capital, New Delhi, in desperate search of oxygen tanks. In a country of 1.3 billion people, the number of infections has risen to 17 million, and overcrowded hospitals have started to turn away patients due to a lack of oxygen and beds across the country. Due to this many crematoriums are also heavily overfilled.

India's government announced earlier this year that the virus was fully under control and that life would return to being normal. Restrictions and controls were loosened, and religious gatherings were permitted throughout the country.

However, in the short period of two months, all of India’s previous efforts have gone down the drain, and the country is now facing an alarming outbreak of infections.


What are some of the potential causes of the recent spike, and what is going wrong in India's fight against the coronavirus pandemic?


1. The government’s hasty decision to alleviate Covid regulations and measures.


At the beginning of the year, India’s national number of daily cases dropped down to under 20,000 from about 90,000 in September of last year. Covid was declared defeated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and all public gathering places were soon set to be open. However, partly due to this statement, people quickly began not adhering to Covid regulations and safety protocols. While it was stated that wearing masks and following social distancing was still expected and needed, the public disregarded it and did not view Covid-19 as a threat any longer. The government disregarded the prospect of a second wave and declared a reopening.

Despite alarming reports of rising infections, one of India's largest Hindu festival known as the Kumbh Mela began in the middle of March, only a few weeks before the surge in numbers were reported.

Almost 3.5 million Indian devotees gathered in Uttarakhand to mark the traditional event by taking an annual holy dip in the River Ganges, despite the threat of coronavirus.

The nearly month-long festival unexpectedly turned into a “super-spreader” phenomenon, with the aftermath becoming more apparent in recent weeks.

In four states, West Bengal, Assam, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu, millions of Indians turned out to vote in legislative assembly elections. Political groups/parties organized large demonstrations and packed election campaigns between March and April. Voting began at the end of March and continued into early April. Daily coronavirus numbers in West Bengal soared to over 20,000 during the election, prompting Modi to call off the rallies, reacting extremely late to the increasing concern.


2. Exportation of oxygen


In addition to reopening all of its public facilities, India's oxygen exports increased by more than 700 percent in 2021 compared to the previous year. The shortage of vaccines and medical oxygen soon brought the nation to its knees. Patients' families have taken to social media in recent days to plead for oxygen supplies and information on available hospital beds.

General Bipin Rawat, the Chief of Defence Staff, said in a meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday that armed forces reserves would provide oxygen to hospitals, and retired medical military personnel would enter Covid-19 health facilities.

There are currently over 2.8 million active cases in the world, and the healthcare system in some states has collapsed. Lockdowns in New Delhi and many other heavily impacted areas of the country have been extended for another two weeks in order to contain the outbreak, which has yet to reach its height.



3. Variation of the virus(mutation)


As they spread from person to person, all viruses mutate to gain genetic changes that allow them to adapt to their hosts. Some mutations can make viruses less contagious, while others can make them deadlier or propagate quicker. Still, some can be overlooked without making a noticeable difference.

The high population and density of India provided the ideal climate for viruses to mutate and experiment with new infection methods.

In October, the B.1.617 strain of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes Covid-19, was discovered in Maharashtra. The variant has spread quickly in 21 other nations, not including India. Though there are many other variants in existence around the world, the Indian version is of particular concern since it contains two significant mutations, earning it the moniker "double mutant." Another strain, B.1.618, was discovered in India and shows at least one of the mutations shown in the "double mutant" strain. The latest strain has been branded a "triple variant" by some in the media, but experts caution us against such descriptions, as it is portrayed as too simplistic.

What makes both strains more dangerous are the new L452R and E484K variants, because these specific variants are known as immune escape variants, meaning that they can evade immune system responses.

People who have recovered from a previous Covid-19 infection or who have been vaccinated may be at risk of re-infection with the variant because they are not resistant to this new strain, according to some experts.


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These are only some of the reasons, why India is facing these consequences related to Covid. From what I see the only way to stop the massive increase in the numbers of reported cases seems to be to put the whole country on lockdown, but this could be economically catastrophic. The second wave, on the other hand, is proving to be more disastrous. India needs to increase vaccination efforts, inoculate millions of people in a single day, and enforce strict rules and regulations against Covid.



 

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Image: Courtesy of Google Pictures & Reuters.com









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